Oil NEWS


WTI: Oversold RSI can stop bears targeting 61.8% Fibonacci

WTI bears catch a breath as the quote flashes $53.00 during the initial trading session on Tuesday. The energy benchmark recently dropped to the lowest since October and is declining towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its upside from December 2018 to April 2019.

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THEMES AFFECTING OIL

SPECIAL OIL YEARLY FORECAST

Crude Oil Price Forecast 2020: WTI bulls to hold their horses despite tighter market, rosier economy

The year 2019 was rather a balanced one for oil prices, as the early rise was evened out in the rest of the year. The US-China trade war fueled the global economic slowdown undermined the efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to balance the crude market and ramp up oil prices. Stepping into 2020, the oil industry is on a verge of witnessing a massive shake-up, in the face of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations –IMO 2020– effective from January.

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Editors' picks

EUR/USD: Shows signs of life after three-day losing streak

EUR/USD is flashing green in Asia, having dropped for the third straight day on Monday. The currency pair is currently trading at 1.1025, representing marginal gains on the day. Key intraday indicators are reporting a bullish divergence. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD: 200-hour SMA, short-term resistance line cap immediate upside

Following its failure to break 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January 14-24 upside, GBP/USD pulls back to 1.3060 during the Asian session on Tuesday. Buyers will have multiple upside barriers beyond the nearby resistance confluence.

GBP/USD News

Stocks slump as coronavirus spreads

US indices had a poor start to the week as the virus that originated in Wuhan spreads globally and the number of deaths increase. Safe haven assets see heavy demand, while oil prices drop. Onshore markets in China remain closed for the week.

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Gold: Consolidating in a pennant pattern

Gold has largely been in a consolidation mode since Monday's early Asian session and is currently sidelined near $1,580. The hourly chart shows the yellow metal is trapped in a pennant pattern. A breakout would allow a re-test of recent highs above $1,600.

Gold News

USD/JPY: Pulls back from 100-day SMA inside rising channel

USD/JPY recovers from nearly three-week low amid bearish MACD and mixed market sentiment on coronavirus outbreak. 50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-day SMA add to the support. 61.8% Fib level offers short-term resistance.

USD/JPY News

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About oil

OIL HIGHLIGHTS

Crude Oil, commonly known as petroleum, is a naturally occurring fossil fuel liquid composed of hydrocarbon underground deposits and organic materials. The prices of this popular commodity are measured in USD. Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, Iran and China are the countries producing more oil. On the other hand, United States, China, Japan, Russia, and Germany are the countries consuming more oil.

Crude oil is classified into various grades according to density (heavy vs light) and sulphur content (sour vs sweet). The lighter and sweeter the crude, the higher the price it can be sold, because refiners can produce higher yield of high quality refined products from it.

Density is measured by API gravity, a measure developed to compare the density of petroleum with water (API > 10 means the liquid floats on water) but is now widely used to compare among crude oils. API degree is inversely related to the density of crude oil. In general, crudes of API between 40-45 degrees can be sold at greatest commercial values.

Sulphur content determines the quality of a crude oil. This corrosive material decreases the purity of a crude oil. Therefore, a crude oil with high sulphur content (sour crude) should sell cheaper than one with low sulphur content (sweet crude). There are two main benchmarks for pricing Crude Oil: WTI (West Texas Intermediate) from USA and Brent from UK.

Major benchmarks

WTI Crude

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is of very high quality. It has API gravity of 39.6 and sulphur content of 0.24% only. Its low density and low sulphur content gave it the name 'light, sweet crude' and enabled refiners to produce high yield of gasoline. Most WTI crude oil gets  refined in the Midwest region of the country, with some more refined within the Gulf Coast region.

This type of crude oil is used as a benchmark in oil pricing and the underlying commodity of NYMEX's oil futures contracts. Due to its 'lightness' and 'sweetness', WTI crude is normally selling at about $1-$2/ barrel premium to Brent.
Brent

Brent is actually a blend of crude oil from 15 different oil fields the North Sea. It has API gravity of 38.3 degrees and sulphur content of around 0.37%. From these 2 parameters, we can see that Brent crude oil is heavier and less sweet than WTI crude. Brent is suitable for refinery of gasoline and middle distillates.

Brent was first traded on International Petroleum Exchange in London and then on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) since 2005. Typically, price of Brent crude oil is around $1 lower than WTI. However, in 2007, due to the depletion of the North Sea Oil field, Brent Crude futures had traded at a premium to WTI of approximately $1 to $3 per barrel.

Oil and USD/CAD Correlation

The Special Relationship Between Oil and the Loonie

Some of you may already be familiar with the special relationship between oil prices and the Canadian dollar. For those of you who aren't, let me fill you in on what you're missing!

There's a reason why Canadian dollar traders keep track of oil prices-- the two often move hand in hand. When oil prices move down, it's not uncommon to see the Loonie follow suit. Conversely, rising oil prices are usually accompanied by Loonie rallies. Why do these two share such a strong bond? It has a lot to do with Canada's economy. 

Canada happens to be the world's seventh largest oil producer. In fact, it's the U.S.'s main supplier, as it sends about 2 million barrels of oil a day to its southern neighbor. Since Canadian dollars are needed to purchase and move oil across the border, the demand for oil tends to have a direct impact on USD/CAD price action.

It's interesting to see that aside from risk sentiment and fundamentals, oil also plays a big factor in Loonie price action. So the next time you think of trading USD/CAD, do yourself a big favor and take a peek at your oil charts. It could just give you critical insight to help you bag some Loonie pips!

Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD.